Winter Watch Articles

France is Burning

October 18, 2026 4
The coat of running a low trust society and too late to correct. Chaos is starting to spread to Italy. Late stage collapse behavior on [...]
  • Minsky Moment: Inside the Ai Bubble?

    October 16, 2026 7
    Underlying video: ChatGpt– This is becoming a much more interesting Minsky story. What strikes me about this video isn’t the collapse in chip stocks. It’s the simultaneous deterioration in credit pricing, financing availability, and confidence [...]
  • Fearsome Threesome: Fetzer, Hagopian and Winter

    October 15, 2026 1
    Putin’s diesel deal with Trump embarrasses Zelensky even though it’s not going to solve our diesel problem. Trump claims Russia and Ukraine have reached “an energy cease fire”, but Zelensky says he’s never heard of [...]
  • Follow-up on the Catastrophes

    October 14, 2026 1
    Isaias alert: ILS estimate widens the credible insured-loss range 1. What changed Euler ILS Partners now estimates US$2–4 billion of industry insured losses, versus Cotality’s US$2–3 billion estimate and the roughly US$1 billion figure cited [...]
  • The Minsky Moment Conversation About Housing

    October 13, 2026 0
    UPDATE: As of this morning, 43.4% of all US homes for sale are now undergoing price cuts. This is the highest read all year, up an additional 70 basis points from this time last week. [...]
  • Reaching GFC Levels of Delinquency

    October 12, 2026 0
    I might as well starting sharing my ChatGpt notes: Note: BAA is very crowded trade. many of these masters of the universe types are playing it. This is potentially very bad news for ABS valuations, [...]
  • Numerous Black Swans and the Minsky Moment

    October 11, 2026 9
    There are currently four major catastrophes juggling simultaneously: Hurricane Isaias, Mega hurricane Simon in Mexico, Tropical Storm Rachel: Southern California and Southwest, and the Panama earthquake. Worrying update for #Hurricane #Simon. The eye is now [...]
  • “Art of the Deal” Big Brain Trump Pulls Off Phony Diesel Scam With Russia

    October 10, 2026 2
    This post is based on an analysis with Chat gpt. Big Brain claims he made a massive diesel deal with Putin to save the day in the lead up to the Midterm elections. Whether his [...]

‘Big Short’ Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst